Gwinnett Population Growth: Fact or Fiction❓
(June Series: Part 1) Behind the Buzzwords and Into the Census
An Educated Citizen is an Informed Voter! 🗳️
We’re dedicating the month of June to continue our series to “pull back the curtain” in Gwinnett. We’ll review key components of how our county government operates, who is really making the decisions (spoiler alert: it’s often not our elected officials), how some of our tax dollars are being spent, and the talking points used to justify their actions.
Our goal is simple: to bring you information you may not have known. Some of you may read this series and think, “Ehh, no big deal,” while others might say, “Wow, some things need to change.” Either way, knowledge is power—and it should be shared freely.
📌 To read previous GAP posts in this series, click [here].
Today’s GAP will cover a basic topic but one that is key in almost every decision in our county: Population Growth!
What We’re Told vs. What Is True
If you attend or follow any Board of Commissioners, Board of Education, or local leadership meetings—or listen to our elected officials—you’ll often hear that decisions are being made:
To “keep up with our population growth”
To “expand infrastructure or development to make way for our growing population”
Gwinnett is one of Georgia’s “fastest growing counties”
And while they hear resident’s concerns about (over)development... they must “plan ahead” for our fast growing county.
Growth, growth, growth
But is Gwinnett really growing? If so, by how much?
Gwinnett is notably the second-largest county in Georgia, just behind Fulton. In 2024, we eeked past the 1 million mark in population.
But beyond clever messaging and historical trends, we wanted to look at actual growth data and future projections. This is key to understanding the narrative that’s driving current planning—and what taxpayers are footing the bill for.
❓ Is all the county’s planning, (over)development, and redevelopment warranted—or more importantly, needed?
By The Numbers: Current Growth
The following is current data available that gives us a window- or helps to pull back the curtain- into our county and our current population, followed by our previous growth history, and our projected future growth:
The U.S. Census is, by far, the most widely used population data source in the country. Most other sources will use the Census as their baseline for information.
According to the Census:
Gwinnett grew from 957,290 in 2020 to 1,003,869 in 2024
That’s an average annual growth of 11,645
Much of that spike occurred in 2020, not evenly across the years
📊 Source: United States Census Bureau
By The Numbers: Our History
According to recent Census estimates:
Between 2021 and 2023, the population increased by 18,188
2021 to 2022: +10,835
2022 to 2023: +7,353 (0.75% growth)
Between 2000 and 2023:
Gwinnett’s population grew by 387,520 in 23 years
That’s an average of 16,849 annually
Gwinnett saw a spike in 2020 (+2.24%)
More recent growth: ~1% or less, with 983,526 in 2023, just topping 1M in 2024
➡️ As you can see, the 2000s saw real, fast-paced growth. But recent trends? Not so much. The “fast-growing population” talking point seems overblown today.
📊 Data Source: Neilsberg Research
By The Numbers: Our Future
What does the future look like for Gwinnett County?
These predictions are important as we hear more and more the push for new developments and changing the landscape or quality of living for residents.
We should demand that decisions be based on verifiable, current data— not hyperbole, exaggerated projections, “glory days” past growth, outdated trends, or “paid-for case studies” with potential conflicts of interest.
As citizens facing increasing taxes, we must ask our leaders to prove the need.
📉 The Governor’s Office of Planning & Budget projects:
Less than 10,000 new Gwinnett residents annually over the next decade
That’s in line with the recent sub-1% growth trend
In some years, this equals only a 0.01% change—hardly enough to justify massive new multi-family complexes throughout Gwinnett
🏘️ Fact:
As of today, there are currently 2,981 FMLS listings for single-family homes, condos, and townhouses in Gwinnett (starting at $140,000+).
Lastly, you might notice on the Gwinnett County website (link: Gwinnett Population Facts) they reference Woods & Poole as a population data source. This is a for-profit organization based out of D.C., with minimal public footprint and limited transparency in its methodology we could locate.
It appears Woods & Poole works with federal, state, and local governments—as well as private groups—to provide economic and demographic projections. According to their Gwinnett County projections (obtained via an Open Records Request), even they estimate population growth at or below 19,000 annually for the next decade and in line with the 0.01-0.02% increase.
However, their methodology seemed vague, and the report includes a striking disclaimer:
“Historical data are subject to revision; projections are uncertain and future data may differ substantially from Woods & Poole projections. Woods & Poole Economics, Inc. makes no guarantee as to the accuracy of the historic data and projections in this data file.”
🤔 So why is Gwinnett County paying for this source?
📊 Data Sources:
Governor’s Office of Planning & Budget, World Population Review, Atlanta Regional Commission, Woods & Poole Economics, Inc.
Education Trends Support Slow Growth
The Board of Education predicts slow or even declining enrollment, further supporting a slower future population growth.
📈 Yet, during their recent FY26 budget proposal of $3.43 BILLION, they continued justifying increases—raising additional questions about overspending and bureaucratic bloat over real needs.
📊 Data Source: Gwinnett County Board of Education
Where Will Future Growth Happen in Gwinnett?
📍 A breakdown below of which cities in Gwinnett are expected to grow through 2028:
📊 Data Source: Analysis of Gwinnett County
By The Numbers: Population & Diversity
📍 Gwinnett County (highlighted in red)
📈 The lines above (from top to bottom) represent areas with higher citizenship rates:
Walton, Jackson, Rockdale, Barrow, Georgia (statewide), the U.S. (national average), Fulton, Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, DeKalb, Hall, and Forsyth.
📊 Data Source: Data USA
This data surprised us a little! 👀 It raises important questions:
Why is Gwinnett a more favorable destination (some by double) for noncitizens compared to other large counties?
Are there leadership policies—intentional or not—that contribute to this trend?
These questions are worth exploring because lower citizenship rates can have broad implications:
🏛️ Impact on Social Services & Budgets
A higher noncitizen population may create increased demand for public social services, especially those related to health, housing, and education—even if access is limited to specific programs. This can strain county resources and impact taxpayer-funded budgets, especially as the county continues to propose increases across multiple departments.
💸 Impact on Nonprofits and NGOs
We’ve recently covered the rise of NGOs in Gwinnett and their increased demand for grant funding—much of which is framed around serving vulnerable or underserved populations.
Could this demographic shift be part of what’s driving the proliferation of nonprofits in Gwinnett? If so, how accountable are these NGOs, and how transparent is the grant funding process? We have found issues!
🎓 Impact on School Districts
Gwinnett County Public Schools may also be affected. Schools often serve as primary points of integration for children of noncitizens, which may impact:
ESL (English as a Second Language) programs and service expectations
Free and reduced lunch programs
Federal and state funding formulas
Classroom sizes and staffing needs
Impact and retention of teachers who struggle with these variables
As we've reported, school budgets are ballooning—even as student enrollment growth has slowed. The composition of that enrollment may be an under-examined factor.
🗳️ Impact on Elections & Voter Registration
With fewer citizens relative to the total population, Gwinnett may have fewer eligible voters per capita, which raises questions about:
Voter representation
Turnout comparisons across counties
How accurately our elected leaders reflect the will of eligible constituents
Are we giving disproportionate political power to entities, nonprofits, or agencies that cater to non-voting residents—while the concerns of voters are minimized?
🧭 Regional Context & Policy Influence
Could our proximity to Athens-Clarke (often referred to as an unofficial sanctuary county) and Hall County—both areas with significant immigrant populations—make Gwinnett more attractive?
While Gwinnett is a large county, other large (top five) counties appear significantly less in immigrant population. Why is that?
One possible factor: policy decisions.
Add to this Sheriff Keybo Taylor’s 2021 campaign promise and 2024 re-election platform, where he immediately terminated Gwinnett's participation in the 287(g) program in place since 2009 (which allows local law enforcement to cooperate with federal immigration enforcement).
This policy shift was widely reported (Fox 5 Report, AP News, Law Commentary, Immigration Politics Georgia and others), and many viewed it as a signal that Gwinnett would no longer prioritize cooperation with ICE—possibly making it more appealing for noncitizens, undocumented immigrants and mixed-status families. It is unclear if his policy stance has changed with recent Presidential Executive Orders and increased immigration enforcement.
❓ More Questions Than Answers
We’re not drawing conclusions here—yet—but we believe these are valid questions citizens should be asking:
What are the true costs—fiscal and social—of lower citizenship rates?
Who benefits from this trend, and who pays for it?
Is there transparency from elected officials and public agencies about how these trends affect county-level decision-making?
We’ll continue to explore these questions in future posts.
Conclusion
It appears Gwinnett’s days of population booms may be behind us—at least for the foreseeable future.
In a well-run county, you’d expect our leaders to right-size our budgets and developments to match today’s reality—not yesterday’s hype.
When speaking with officials about development proposals or pending votes, ask them to cite and present specific data to support the need. If they’re planning for the future, they should be planning based on facts—not flashbacks.
Thanks for following along in our June series—and stay tuned for more upcoming posts! We’re just getting started pulling back the curtain in Gwinnett.
📚 Source Links and Additional Reading:
Georgia Governor's Office of Planning & Budget - Population Projections
Neilsberg Research: Gwinnett County
Gwinnett Daily Post: 1.2 Million Residents in 2050
Disclaimer: This information is intended for educational purposes. All information is true and accurate to the best of our knowledge and obtained through publicly available sources or Open Record Request.
Gwinnett's grossly disproportionate share of the non citizen population suggests a plan. And that plan is probably not emanating just from the local county commission. The cost in government services for non-citizens, legal and illegal, has to be much greater than for the average homeowner; but I've never seen a dollar figure. However, the fact that decisions are being made that don't benefit the people that pay the freight suggests that there is a power dynamic going on that's not about to change so long as we have bloated voter roles, electronic voting machines and a voter data base sitting on a Sales Force cloud computer.
Thank you, Lisa for pulling back the curtain once again. The trend is very alarming and based on what you have presented, it seems to be delibrate. Non citiznen numbers going down in Gwinnett while social services for non-citizens and more demands for funding those non-citizen social services increasing! Our Gwinnett government officials are corrupt. This is intentional. Also, the fact that more and more unelected powers (regulatory agency heads, NGO's) are making decisions with out tax dollars is wrong! Gwinnett citizens need to wake up and vote these Democrat shysters out of office! Gwinnett is overdeveloped and constituents continue to bear the burden of more taxation. It is THEFT in plain sight!